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One Sided Championship Games – Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, and Ohio State

The weird thing about the conference championships this weekend is that only one team in each game has a strong opportunity to continue on to the real championship, which you get to by going through the College Football Playoffs.

If #10 Missouri (all rankings my own) wins the SEC championship, they will go to a consolation game, and it won’t even be the SEC-tied Sugar Bowl, since that’s a playoff game this year. Yet somehow, Mississippi State, which didn’t even win its own division, could get in.

If #8 Georgia Tech wins the ACC championship, they’ll go to the Orange Bowl, and their season will end there. And, if Florida State wins and goes undefeated, they might not even make the playoff! Look, I’m no Florida State fan, but let a team lose before you end their season. Their schedule wasn’t that soft.

If #5 Arizona wins the PAC-12 championship, they have a 37% chance of making the playoff, according to Nate Silver’s projections. By the way, that’s lower than the projected chance of Alabama making it in if they lose their championship game. Equal number of losses, I get it–but it’s a championship game, which is supposed to be a chance to move on.

If #4 Ohio State wins, they have a 60% chance of making the playoff, according to Silver. And #14 Wisconsin has no chance whatsoever, even though they would have

And of course, in the Big 12, there’s Two “One True Champion”ses.

I really enjoy watching college football, including the championship games. The College Football Playoff is a step in the right direction. I’m excited to watch the playoff games on January 1. But I would love to see a system where teams qualify in a transparent manner. A 4-team playoff is not enough when you have 129 teams playing 12 games each. And there should be no subjective opinion. For goodness’ sake Baylor hired a PR firm to lobby for its team. Simplify the system so teams know what they have to do to get in. Don’t make it about brand names and PR firms.

Screen Shot 2014-12-04 at 9.26.59 AMHey Marshall, you had your chance.

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Here are the Teams that Control Their Own Season

Here are the teams that currently kind of control their path to the championship:

  • Alabama
  • Florida State

Great list, right? No one else is included because every other team has the possibility of winning the rest of their games but not being included in the playoff. If Oregon barely wins their next two games, they could get leapfrogged. Baylor and Ohio State could win out and still not make it in. In fact, they probably won’t, unless teams in the top 4 lose. Weird, right? They could be conference champs in major conferences, and have their spot taken by a team that is not even first place in their division. So yeah.

Here’s why we need an 8-team playoff with no selection committee: any of the following teams in my top 20 could be a conference champion at this point, and therefore still make an 8-team playoff (teams with a ^ would need help from other teams). 

  • #1 Florida St.
  • #2 Alabama
  • #3 Oregon
  • #4 UCLA
  • #5 Mississippi St^
  • #6 Ohio State
  • #7 Marshall
  • #8 Arizona^
  • #9 Arizona State^
  • #10 Georgia^
  • #12 TCU^
  • #14 Georgia Tech
  • #15 Missouri^
  • #16 Colorado St.
  • #17 Boise St.
  • #18 Baylor
  • #19 Wisconsin

11 teams would control their own season, whereas only 2 teams do so right now. Seems like it could be better.

Lastly, could we just bring back the A&M/Texas game already? Sheesh.

I’m trying something different this week. Here are the rounded scores for the top 20 teams. I think a rounded score gives a better idea of where a team is at. If two teams have the same score, know that they are ranked by decimal points.

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Lastly, could we just bring back the A&M/Texas game already? Sheesh.

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Ole Miss is Still the 2nd Best Team in the Country

At least according to these ratings. I still have them ahead of Auburn and Alabama, which surprised me, but Ole Miss does have a better strength of schedule to this point. Think about it: just because a team lost more recently, does that mean they should move behind another team with the same record? It’s simple to do but it’s not necessarily the logical thing to do.

8-Team Playoff, if the season ended today (Games on Dec. 20)
#19 Colorado St. (8) @ #1 Miss St. (1) in Starkville
#14 Nebraska (7) @ #3 Florida St. (2) in Tallahassee
#4 Auburn (6) @ #6 Oregon (3) in Eugene
#2 Ole Miss (5) @ #13 Marshall (4) in Huntington, WV

4-Team Playoff, if the season ended today
#6 Oregon (4) vs. #1 Miss St. (1) in the Sugar Bowl
#2 Ole Miss (3) @ #3 Florida St. (2) in the Rose Bowl

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Image from The Big Lead.

College Football Week 8 – AI Score

(Top image from The Big Lead)

Yahoo! writer Dan Wetzel has been posting something like this tweet every Saturday:

Saturdays in the fall are as glorious as ever, even with 4 teams getting in. The best thing about it is that today, on October 21, more teams than last year at this point can say “we control our own destiny.” If only 2 teams made the playoff, then the only teams that would truly have control over their chance to win the championship at this point would be Florida State and the two teams from Mississippi. While that’s not a bad thing (every team in the top 5 conferences had a chance to win it at the start of the season), I’m sure we can agree that there are plenty of 1-loss teams that deserve to be in the hunt at this point, not to mention a team like Marshall (I know, weak SOS) that hasn’t lost a game yet. It doesn’t dilute the chase because there are so many teams and so few games to be played against each other. They can’t possibly have every team play every other one.

Here are my If-The-Season-Ended-Today playoff brackets (seeding process here):

8-Team Playoff (Quarterfinals on Dec 20)
#15 Nebraska (8) @ #1 Ole Miss (1) in Oxford
#11 TCU (7) @ #3 Florida St. (2) in Tallahassee
#4 Alabama (6) @ #8 Oregon (3) in Eugene
#2 Miss St. (5) @ #9 Marshall (4) in Huntington, WV

4-Team Playoff
#8 Oregon (4) vs.  #1 Ole Miss (1) in the Sugar Bowl
#2 Miss St. (3)  vs. #3 Florida St. (2) in the Rose Bowl

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Image from The Big Lead.

Image from The Big Lead.

Photo by Robert Jordan/Ole Miss Communications

College Football AI Score – Week 7

The SEC is dominating most ratings, including mine, at the midway point of the season.  I have 5 SEC teams in the top 8.  All these teams will have (or have already had) a chance to prove themselves and rise to the top.

Notre Dame is making it interesting this year. I summarized my playoff format in last week’s post, and one of the challenges for the Fighting Irish is that they don’t have a conference to win, meaning they should have to demonstrate beyond a reasonable doubt that they belong in a playoff. If they win this week, that might happen.

Here are the projected matchups, assuming the higher-rated team wins out:

8-team Playoff – First Round on Sat. December 20
#18 Minnesota @ #1 Ole Miss (1) in Oxford
#12 Marshall @ #3 Florida State (2) in Tallahassee
#4 Notre Dame (6) @ #6 Baylor (3) in Waco
#2 Miss State (5) @ #10 Oregon (4) in Eugene

4-team Playoff
#6 Baylor (4) vs. #1 Ole Miss (1)
#2 Miss St (3) vs.  #3 Florida State (2)

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Photo by Robert Jordan/Ole Miss Communications

Photo by Robert Jordan/Ole Miss Communications

Top Photo by Robert Jordan, Ole Miss Communications.