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  • aishak 8:48 pm on November 30, 2009 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
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    CompuDrew Rankings – The Three Classes 

    I got some good feedback after posting my playoff system proposal last week.  One thing that makes this year really strange in terms of proposing such a system is that there have been three distinct classes of playoff worthy teams this year and I think the case could be made that a cutoff after the first or second class would be okay.  The first group is Florida, Alabama, and Texas–the three teams that everyone seems to think are head and shoulders above the rest. CompurDrew agrees.  Those three teams are at 97 and above, and then there is a dropoff to the next three undefeated teams: TCU, Cincy, and Boise State.  Why such a big dropoff?  Just look at strength of schedule.  Alabama, Florida, and Texas have had tough schedules, TCU, Cincy and Boise State have had easy schedules.  This is not my opinion, this is the raw numbers telling us that the top three teams have been tested this season by difficult opponents while the next three (with the exception of a game or two on each schedule) have not.  I am in no way saying that Cincy, TCU and Boise State don’t deserve a shot at the championship, just pointing out that their SOS gives them a lower rating.  (Keep reading below the Top 25 chart.)CompuDrew ratings

    The third class goes from Georgia Tech at 7 to USC at 19.  Can you believe there have been ZERO 1-loss teams this season going into the conference championships?  Weird.  I would say in most years that some 1-loss teams deserve to make a playoff and some don’t.  This year, there would be a few 2- or 3-loss teams in a playoff.  Again, not the best year to propose something like this, because who wants 2-loss Ohio State in a playoff?  But it could happen.  Here’s how:

    Alabama, Florida, and TCU are in, because the SEC loser will no doubt get the at-large berth.  If they all win, Texas, Cincy, Boise State, GA Tech and Oregon would be in as well.  But let’s say Cincy loses.  Pitt would be the Big East champion and would settle somewhere between 13 and 16  We would then need the next highest conference champ, which would be Ohio State at 13.  If Boise State lost as well, their weak SOS would drop them to around 12-14, and Pitt or Ohio State might be ahead of them. Same deal with teams like Texas, GA Tech, and Oregon: win and they’re in, but if they lose, you’d have to go down to 20-25 to find a conference champion.

    That’s something I really like about my playoff proposal.  It’s not the just the top 8 teams.  If it were, then we’d have to listen to BCS backers say things like “playoffs would diminish the most exciting season in sports.”  Then tell that to Oregon, who would have a win-or-go-home game this Thursday against Oregon State.  Or tell that to Texas, who would be in the same situation this Saturday.  Or Georgia Tech, or Boise, or Cincinnati.  Or Pitt playing for a slight chance to make the playoffs.  Or Nebraska.  Or even Clemson, or Oregon State.  Does a team like Clemson deserve to make a playoff?  Well, if they can win a conference with THREE TEAMS IN THE TOP 10, then yes, I’d say they deserve an outside chance. Go for it Clemson, get past Georgia Tech in the ACC championship (#7) then Alabama AT Tuscaloosa (#1) then TCU in the Orange Bowl (#4) then Florida or Texas in Pasadena.  If you can do that, then who would deny your right to be called a champion? Instead, we literally have only 3 teams that can control their own destiny going into the last week of the season with 6 undefeated teams left.  If the BCS got a ran the United Nations it would have declared Germany the winner of World War II in 1942.

     

  • aishak 8:08 pm on November 24, 2009 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
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    CompuDrew – Playoff Proposal Part 2 

    Let’s take a quick look at the current CompuDrew ratings.  Part 2 of my playoff proposal is below (read Part 1).

    CompuDrew Nov 23

    So based on Part 1, the top 7 conference champions make the playoffs, as well as the highest-ranked at-large team (I called it a wildcard last week, but I’ll use the popular college football term).  Those 8 teams, given the current rankings and assuming that the higher-ranked team will win the SEC, look like this:

    1. Alabama (SEC)
    2. Florida (at large)
    3. Texas (Big 12)
    4. TCU (MWC)
    5. Cincinnati (Big East)
    6. Georgia Tech (ACC)
    7. Boise St. (WAC)
    8. Oregon (Pac 10)

    Here is where the system becomes really fun for fans and college campuses: the top four conference champions get to host the first round on their campus.  The at-large team, if in the top 4, is moved to 5th place, and then the rest of the seeding continues.  In most seasons, I think the schedule could support having the quarterfinals on the third Saturday in December.  Could you imagine this schedule on a Saturday?

    12 pm ET on ESPN – #5 Florida at #4 Cincinnati – Cinncinnati, OH
    3 pm ET on CBS – #8 Oregon at #1 Alabama – Tuscaloosa, AL
    6 pm ET on NBC – #6 Georgia Tech at #3 TCU – Fort Worth, TX
    9 pm ET on ABC – #7 Boise St at #2 Texas – Austin, TX

    I am drooling.  I wouldn’t leave my couch from 9 am central (start of College Gameday on ESPN) to midnight.  Unless of course, I went to the game, which is one of the best parts of this playoff system: postseason games on college campuses.  All bowl games are currently in pro stadiums.  That’s fine, because it’s the best way for the bowls to make money.  But could you imagine the electricity in Austin on gameday in December, especially since everyone will have just finished the semester?  Or Gainesville?  Or Tuscaloosa?  Or Columbus or Eugene or South Bend?  There is nothing like a college town on gameday, and we’re talking about putting even more huge games on campus.

    Semifinals and Finals

    The day after the first round will also be a fun day for fans and bowl organizers, because this is when the four major bowls would get to choose their matchups from the playoff teams.  Here’s how it works: the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta bowls will rotate their draft slots each year so that each bowl gets their first choice of game every four years.  Let’s say in 2009 the order is this: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Rose.  And let’s say that the home teams won their playoff games.  The Sugar Bowl organizers can choose any of these matchups:

    • Cincinnati vs. Alabama (semifinal)
    • Oregon vs. Florida (first round losers)
    • Texas vs. TCU (semifinal)
    • Georgia Tech vs. Boise State (first round losers)

    Obviously in this case, the Sugar Bowl would choose Cincinnati vs. Alabama for the SEC connection.  Then the Orange Bowl is up. Do the Orange Bowl organizers want the other semifinal (Texas vs. TCU), or do they want to honor their ties to the ACC and go with Georgia Tech vs. Boise State?  I think both choices would be lucrative for the Orange Bowl.  Let’s say their primary goal is to sell tickets so they go with Georgia Tech vs. Boise State.  That would leave Texas vs. TCU for the Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 and MWC) and Oregon vs. Florida for the Rose Bowl (Pac 10 and SEC).  Perfect.  Two of the games will be played on New Year’s Day (Rose Bowl and one other on rotation) and the two others will be played on January 2nd.

    That was too easy, right?  Each bowl actually getting at least one of their conference ties?  AND two of those games actually matter, and aren’t just postseason exhibitions?  It won’t always work out perfectly, but to be honest this is one of those years in which not all the top teams are marquee programs, such as Cincinnati, TCU, Oregon, and Boise State.  So think about the years in which USC and Ohio State are in there, too; You’ll have some great matchups and happy bowl organizers.

    Who hosts the championship?

    Okay, yes, there will be a few years in which the 4th bowl selection is kind of a stinker.  Maybe a 11-1 Utah team vs. a 10-2 Pitt.  That doesn’t sounds too lucrative to an event like the Rose Bowl.  A game like this will pop up once in a while, so here’s how we make it better: the 4th bowl selector (in this case, the Rose Bowl) also hosts the National Championship during the second week of January.  What this means is that if you pick last among the four bowls, you are still guaranteed the most watched and important game of the season.  Fair?  I think so.

    So, the bowls still make their money and keep most of their conference ties.  The teams get a system that is fair in that it lets in league winners, but only league winners who deserve to move on.  The schools and conferences will still get their BCS money (no, the Big 10 wouldn’t get money this year, but do they deserve it?).  And most importantly, the fans and players get a system that is exciting and equitable at the same time.  Only four games total added to the schedule (those mid-December home games), and just the right amount of time between games for fans, teams, and ticket sellers.  Tradition preserved and improved upon.

    Thoughts?

     

  • aishak 9:52 am on November 18, 2009 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
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    CompuDrew – Playoff Proposal Part 1 

    Here are the latest CompuDrew rankings.  The first part of my playoff proposal is below.

    CompuDrew

    Before I detail my playoff system, I should let you know that its biggest strength lies in appeasing all of college football constituencies: the teams, the schools, the conferences, the bowls, and most importantly, the fans.

    CompuDrew Playoff Proposal Part 1

    Who makes the playoffs? The top 7 conference winners (denoted above by a *) and the next highest rated team (denoted by a ^).  We’ll call that last team the wildcard.

    Any exceptions? Yes.  A team cannot capture the wildcard if they are “leapfrogging” their own conference winner.  For example, if Iowa were the top ranked non-conference winner, they would be skipped because the team that won their conference (Ohio St) didn’t even make the playoffs

    So who would make it this year? As of now, it just so happens that the top 8 teams would make it (Alabama, Texas, Cincy, TCU, GT, Boise St, Oregon, and Florida as the wildcard).  But there could still be some changes.  If the loser of the SEC Championship drops far enough, they might be out.  If Texas loses the Big 12 Championship, they will certainly be out because the Big 12 north winner won’t even be in the top 25.

    Let’s take a look at last year’s BCS Standings on December 7, 2008 to see a scenario in which not all top 8 teams make it.

    1. Florida* (SEC champ)
    2. Oklahoma* (Big 12 champ)
    3. Texas^ (Big 12 wildcard)
    4. Alabama (lost SEC champ game – not in playoffs)
    5. USC* (Pac 10 champ)
    6. Utah* (MWC champ)
    7. Texas Tech (Big 12 3rd place – not in playoffs)
    8. Penn State* (Big 10 champ)
    9. Boise State* (WAC champ)
    10. Ohio State (Big 10 2nd place – not in playoffs)
    11. TCU (MWC 2nd place – not in playoffs)
    12. Cincinnati* (Big East champ)

    Alabama, Texas Tech, Ohio State, and TCU would not have made it, but Cincy would have.  My response to any complaints from 2nd place teams?  Win your conference.  Maybe you’re thinking: “Win your conference? That’s convenient for a Texas fan to say; they didn’t win their conference and still would have made it.”  I’ll detail next week how Texas would have been penalized for not winning their conference.  2009 Florida and 2009 Alabama, take note.

    The teams will be appeased with an 8-team system.  Now, a team like Boise State won’t be left out if they go undefeated.

    Next week: CompuDrew Playoff Proposal Part 2, including a huge boon for the schools and fans.  I’ll give you a hint: it’s good news for the top 4 conference champions.

     

  • aishak 8:35 am on November 9, 2009 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
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    CompuDrew Week 4 

    Okay, this is a little embarrassing.  I was looking at my formula and I realized that when we get to the end of the season, the combined reward-punishment of both teams playing in a conference’s championship will be negative.  Put another way, the ratings would favor teams that don’t even play in those games.  So I made a small change to the formula, giving credit to teams for winning extra games, and not penalizing teams too harshly for losing the 13th game of the season.  Here are the new CompuDrew rankings.

    CompuDrew Week 4

     

  • aishak 9:30 am on November 2, 2009 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment  

    CompuDrew Week 3 

    Not too many meaningful changes in the top 10, except for Oregon jumping up after their win over USC.  Texas fans should note that while CompuDrew still has them ranked 4th, they are closing the gap in terms of raw score because their schedule is looking stronger each week (although playing Baylor on November 14 won’t help).

    Why is Boise State only at 13, even though they beat Oregon?  Look at their strength of schedule, which most computers have ranked as 100 out of 119.  They played UC Davis for goodness’ sake.

    CompuDrew Week 3

     

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